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Measuring Inflation Through Bank Deposits

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Inflation is commonly discussed in terms of rising consumer prices, but this approach can obscure the underlying driver: the expansion of money in the economy . Prices reflect inflation, but they are not a precise measure of it. I take a different approach—measuring inflation directly through the growth of money in circulation, specifically commercial bank deposits . Why Bank Deposits I use the Federal Reserve’s Deposits, All Commercial Banks (DPSACBW) series as the core measure. This series tracks the total deposits at U.S. commercial banks, including checking, savings, and time deposits. It represents money that has actually reached households and businesses—money that can be spent, lent, or invested. Unlike price indexes, DPSACBW reflects monetary expansion itself , rather than adjustments for substitution, quality, or other statistical treatments. It aligns with the monetarist definition of inflation: the growth of money supply driving economic activity and prices. https://fred...
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A trading strategy for long timeframe investors

In the realm of short-term trading, algorithms and bots dominate, rendering traditional reasoning less effective. However, the landscape of long-term investing remains grounded in fundamentals, demanding a comprehensive understanding of various aspects. Here are some key strategies that you can use in combination to have some predictive capability. Classical Technical Analysis: Utilize chart patterns, support and resistance levels, trendlines, and technical indicators to make trading decisions. Cycles Analysis (Bressert): Incorporate Bressert's cycles analysis to identify recurring patterns and trends in the market, considering time as a crucial factor. Sentiment Analysis: Analyze market sentiment through various indicators, news, and social media to gauge the overall mood of traders and investors. Fibonacci Analysis: Apply Fibonacci retracement and extension levels to identify potential reversal points and price targets in the market. Inter-market Analysis: Study the relationships...
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Bitcoin's Fate: Will Rising Mining Costs from Halving Spell its Demise?

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The Economics of Halving and Mining Costs Bitcoin's halving events are designed to occur approximately every four years, reducing the block reward miners receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain. As of the most recent halving, the block reward is 6.25 bitcoins. While this mechanism is intended to promote scarcity and control inflation, it also has an impact on the profitability of mining.
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At what age do people buy real estate?

At what age do people buy real estate: Late 20s to Early 30s: Approximately 20% to 30% of homebuyers may fall into this age group. As young adults become more financially stable and start families, many consider homeownership as a viable option.
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